Is There Really a Matcha Shortage?

Your usual matcha disappears from the shelf, and the word "shortage" comes quickly to mind. Yet the figures available in October 2026 don't demonstrate a general matcha shortage. Japanese production of tencha, the shaded leaf milled into matcha, has increased while demand abroad has grown. One item can be missing without the entire market stopping.

We'd first ask exactly what's missing: a batch, a package size, or a quality level. National statistics give neither a shop's stock nor a restock date. They only help put the situation in context. The path from tencha to matcha has several steps between harvest and the powder for sale.

Can we speak of a general matcha shortage?

To say that, we'd need to know what is out of stock, for how long, and in which markets. Japan's October 2026 report tracks tea production, crude tea prices, and exports. It doesn't record stocks in French shops or their next deliveries.

When a tin is missing, ask which item is affected. We wouldn't infer a shortage of all matcha from a stockout involving a single harvest. That check remains limited if the seller doesn't say what they can supply.

Has Japanese tencha production fallen?

Not over the period considered. In 2025, Japanese tencha production reached about 6,920 US tons (6,278 metric tonnes), about 3.2 times the 2014 level. Tencha is the shaded leaf dried without rolling that is destined to become matcha. This total doesn't say how much of each quality level or harvest was sold in France.

Rising production can still fall short for certain qualities, because supply reacts slowly. In the same report, about 40% of tea-growing land carries tea plants thirty years old or more, whose yield and quality are a concern. The state helps growers replant and switch to shade-grown tencha, compensating for the period without harvest that follows these changes. A replanted or converted plot doesn't fill tins right away.

We prefer to examine the particular batch offered to you and how it is meant to be used, rather than assign a quality to the volume produced by an entire country.

What do green tea exports show?

Japanese green tea exports reached 72.1 billion yen in 2025, a record in this series. Demand for powdered tea, including matcha, contributes to the rise. The figure, however, covers exported green tea. The "powdered" category also includes other tea powders, so it doesn't measure worldwide matcha sales on its own.

Strong demand can strain supplies of particular items even while total production rises. The different Japanese tea harvests help explain why all leaves don't arrive at the same time.

Does a price increase prove a shortage?

No. The price of crude tea depends on the tea type, harvest period, and quality observed. In 2025, crude tencha cost more than sencha, a Japanese green tea brewed from leaves, in the Japanese report. Tension does show in recent prices, though. According to the same report, first-harvest tea in 2026 sold for about twice the 2025 price in Kagoshima, and about 70% more in Shizuoka. That signal reflects strong demand; on its own, it doesn't prove a general shortage. This production price isn't the price of a tin of matcha sold in France.

We'd first compare the price per gram for the same use. A tin for tasting and a powder for baking serve different needs. Even that comparison alone says nothing about taste or freshness.

What should you choose when your usual matcha is missing?

Begin with your cup. Matcha for drinking with water isn't necessarily replaced by one chosen for lattes or cakes. Then look at the quantity sold, harvest, origin, and process when the listing provides them. No market chart replaces those details about the powder you'll drink.

At Kura-ge, lattes and drinking with water each have two matchas. For a latte, Faune and Rêve can stand in for each other, one woodier, the other more vegetal. With water, Jade and Sérénité, our grand cru, play the same role. If you're willing to change tea, Hojicha Terre brings a roasted flavor under milk, gentler and without matcha's green note.

We'd buy the quantity we can use after opening, rather than stockpile powder that will sit for a long time. If you regularly cook in large quantities, the calculation changes. Only information from the seller can tell you when a particular item will return; national figures provide no date.